Implementation of Probabilistic Operational Scenario Forecasting for Risk Analysis of Power Distribution Systems

Operational scenario generation and forecasting is considered vital for improving the performance of power distribution networks which is considered a non-trivial task. Currently, data-driven solutions have received increasing attention to address this challenge. The proactive fault risk assessment (PFRA) of power distribution networks is critical for power outage warnings and predictive maintenance. However, the available methods for modeling the uncertainties of the operation state are computed in statistical mean-variance from the predictor’s probability density function, which lacks intended risk information on uncertainties. This paper presents and implements a probabilistic operational scenario forecasting (POSF) solution for risk analysis of power distribution systems. The proposed solution is assessed through extensive simulation experiments and the numerical results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed solution.