Connectivity reliability assessment for maritime nodes: a novel D-vine copula-based approach

The connectivity reliability (CR) of maritime nodes reflects their transportation risk and plays a critical role in international trade transportation. In order to evaluate the CR of maritime nodes under the influence of various interrelated factors, we employ the D-vine copula to model the joint probability distribution of the interrelated factors. By incorporating the conditional probability of these factors, the overall CR is subsequently evaluated. The Strait of Malacca, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el Mandeb are utilized in the case study. The research emphasizes the importance of proper and accurate estimation of the occurrence probability of interrelated factors. The results show that, overall, the CR of the Strait of Hormuz is relatively higher than the other two straits. The results demonstrate geographical variance across maritime nodes in terms of CR.