Research on delay model of right-turning vehicle at intersections considering probability of yield-to-pedestrian: a case study of an intersection in Guangzhou

At present, the study on the interaction between motor vehicles and pedestrians at urban signalized intersections and the delay of right-turning vehicles are still to be improved. Taking an intersection in Guangzhou as a case, a delay model of right-turning vehicle considering probability of yield-to-pedestrian was established in this research. Firstly, the data of the case intersection is collected, and the factors that may affect the behaviors of right-turning vehicles were analyzed. Secondly, based on the binary Logit model, a probability estimation model of vehicle yields to pedestrian was established. The results show that the total number of pedestrians crossing the street, the number of pedestrians in the conflict area and the direction of pedestrians are positively correlated with the probability of vehicle yields to pedestrian. Thirdly, based on the traffic flow theory, the delay model of vehicle yield to pedestrian was established. Finally, a delay model of right-turning vehicle at intersections considering probability of yield-to-pedestrian was established, and traffic improvement strategies are proposed based on the model and the accuracy of the model is verified by the detected data. The model can reflect the traffic characteristics of right-turn traffic flow at urban road signalized intersection to a certain extent and has certain reference significance for urban traffic evaluation and management control research.