Study on the evolution of navigation risk of ships carrying dangerous goods in inland river

This paper uses the structural equation model (SEM) and qualitative and quantitative analysis method to analyzetheevolution mechanism of the navigation risk of carrying dangerous goods in inland river. Through the systematic analysisof the influencing factors of the navigation risk of dangerous cargo ships, the key risk evolution index is selected, acomplete risk evolution index system is constructed, and the theoretical model of risk evolution is established basedonthis. On this basis, the path coefficient is analyzed with the help of the professional software AOMS 26.0, and the model is strictly tested and made necessary corrections. The results show that the formation and evolution of the navigationriskof carrying dangerous goods in inland river is the direct or indirect interaction of four categories: natural environment risk, management risk, mechanical and equipment risk and human factor risk. The risk evolution process can be divided into three typical stages: induction, spreading and upgrading. The research results are of great significance for the formulation of relevant safety management measures and the improvement of the navigation safety of ships carrying dangerous goods in inland river.