Effect of life extension strategies on demand and recycling of EV batteries – material flow analysis of Li and Ni in battery value chain for Finnish EV fleet by 2055

• A stock and flow model created for Ni and Li for the Finnish EV fleet by 2055 covers whole value chain of batteries. • Six different scenarios are simulated for different battery chemistries and lifetimes, different recycling efficiencies, and application of R-strategies. • Extending the lifetime of batteries reduces the demand for primary raw materials and reduces generated waste, especially mining waste. • Remanufacturing and low levels of repurposing have similar effect on the reduction of the demand for primary raw materials. • Balance between recycled content targets and life extension policy goals remains a challenge. The rapidly increasing market of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving the growing demand for primary raw materials. In this work, lithium and nickel in the battery value chain were studied by means of a dynamic material flow model for Finnish passenger EV fleet by 2055. The simulations reflect on the future uncertainties about battery chemistries, recycling efficiencies and lifetime of batteries and EVs, when different R-strategies are adopted. The results demonstrate that there is an inherent tension between meeting recycled content goals and promoting life extension initiatives. Combination of remanufacturing and repurposing with recycling puts meeting recycled content targets at risk even though lowering the demand for primary Li and Ni is similar to the case with only recycling. The targets are also put at risk without life extension strategies if overall recycling efficiencies are below 50 % for Li and equal to 90 % for Ni.