The potential impact of cultivated protein on agriculture in Norway

• Market introduction of cultivated protein has the potential to disrupt conventional agriculture. • The success of cultivated protein depends on relative prices, substitution possibilities and consumer preferences. • In Norway, cultivated protein are more likely to substitute food imports. • Conventional agriculture may not be seriously affected in Norway. Cultivated protein has the potential to provide animal protein-based food products in a much more environmentally sustainable way than conventional livestock production. A few products are now available on the market, yet little is known of what increasing market penetration by this potentially disruptive technology could mean for conventional agriculture and the food system as a whole. To address this issue, we simulate increasing market shares of cultivated protein-based food products in an economic model for Norwegian agriculture and evaluate environmental and economic impacts. Assuming no change in current policy and increased animal protein demand from a growing Norwegian population, the model suggests that the introduction of cultivated protein would mostly substitute food imports while leaving domestic agriculture largely unaffected. Harsh consequences for animal agriculture by 2050 are thus unlikely to eventuate in Norway.