Ocean warming projected to increase ecotourism opportunities to encounter iconic marine megafauna (manta rays and zebra sharks) off south-eastern Australia

Context Tourism is a major contributor to coastal economies, with climate change generating unquantified impacts on this sector. Specifically, marine ecotourism businesses often depend on encounters with iconic megafauna, but it is unknown how interactions with these species might change under ocean warming. Aims To assess how climate change may affect key dive-ecotourism species (manta rays and zebra sharks) in south-eastern Australia, where changes in temporal persistence are anticipated. Methods Habitat-suitability models were developed for manta rays and zebra sharks and applied to predict changes in suitable thermal habitat at popular scuba-diving locations in New South Wales (NSW). Key results Sea-surface temperature was the dominant factor associated with the presence of manta rays and zebra sharks. Modelling indicated that timings of seasonal migrations are likely to be altered by ocean warming, with temporal persistence in central NSW potentially increasing, from current low levels, by up to 4 months by 2060. Conclusions Prospects for divers to encounter manta rays and zebra sharks are likely to increase in central NSW because of climate-driven ocean warming. Implications New ecotourism opportunities will develop in NSW, through increased potential to encounter iconic marine megafauna, providing novel openings for coastal ecotourism industries.