Land use and land cover change analysis using geospatial techniques a case study of the Dayet Aoua Watershed, Middle Atlas, Morocco

Abstract The Imouzzer Kandar plateau, located in the Middle Atlas of Morocco, has experienced significant land use changes over the past decades, characterized by the expansion of agricultural lands and the regression of forests and wetlands. This study aimed to detect these changes and assess their impact on the wetlands of the Imouzzer Kandar plateau. To achieve this, three Landsat satellite images from 1984, 1998, and 2018 were analyzed using the diachronic method, employing a supervised classification with the Nearest Neighbour Classifier within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework. The classification accuracy for the three dates reached 92%, providing reliable and actionable insights. Over the 34-year period, approximately 44% of the study area, equivalent to 32,097 hectares, underwent land use changes. The confusion matrix revealed a substantial increase in agricultural and rangeland areas, coupled with a decrease in forest cover and lake area within the Dayet Aoua watershed. Most wetlands, approximately 152.37 hectares, have been converted into rangeland. The analysis further highlighted the irreversible expansion of agricultural land at the expense of areas of wetlands, with 33.34% of this expansion, about 88.20 hectares, being replaced by water-intensive agriculture.