The vulnerability of Canadian forest-dependent communities to climate change: an indicator-based approach

In Canada, recent forest disturbance episodes such as insect outbreaks, forest fires, and drought have significant consequences on forest ecosystems while future climate change is expected to result in more severe impacts. These effects of climate change will impact the communities that depend on forests for their livelihood. Effective responses from forest-dependent communities require a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts and of adaptive capacity assets at the local scale. Vulnerability assessments documenting sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity dimensions have the potential to fill that baseline information gap. This article uses an indicator-based approach to describe the vulnerability to climate change of Canadian forest-dependent communities. We used indicators derived from the 2016 Canadian census to describe the vulnerability of 2270 census subdivisions: 6 indicators were developed for sensitivity, 14 for exposure, and 27 for adaptive capacity. Hierarchical clustering was carried out to distinguish archetypes for each vulnerability dimension. Groupings confirmed that communities experience different vulnerability types across the country. Mapping of vulnerability types showed a strong longitudinal effect of exposure while regionally, it varies more latitudinally due to variation in sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The approach provides relevant baseline information for crafting adaptation strategies tailored to the characteristics of forest-dependent communities.