A Ten Year Out of Sample Point Forecast of Area, Production and Productivity of winter rice in Assam, India

The present study was carried out in the state Assam to forecast area, production and productivity of winter rice of the state. The study area was purposively selected as being the major contributor towards agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the state also provides a major contribution to the economy of India. The prime objective is to estimate ten years ahead forecast of area, production and productivity of winter rice of Assam. To estimate the point forecast a time series analysis was carried on. An ARIMA model was endeavoured using the r-studio auto-Arima statistical package. Study revealed the best suitable p, d, q of area, production and productivity as ARIMA (0,0,4), ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMA (0,1,1) respectively with minimum AIC, BIC, RMSE, MASE parameter criterion, on the basis on which ten years out of sample point forecast for area, production and productivity of winter rice in Assam have been done.