Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Salinity Variability in Rivers and Estuaries: A Bayesian Modeling Approach

Park, M.W.; Lee, K.-M.; Choi, B-H, and Kwon, H.-H., 2024. Assessing the impact of climate change on salinity variability in rivers and estuaries: A Bayesian modeling approach. In: Phillips, M.R.; Al-Naemi, S., and Duarte, C.M. (eds.), Coastlines under Global Change: Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2024 (Doha, Qatar). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 113, pp. 509-513. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. This study investigates the factors influencing salinity levels in the Seomjin River Estuary, South Korea, focusing on their significant ecological and economic impacts, particularly on the local Corbicula clam populations. Recent increases in salinity, primarily due to climate change, pose threats to ecological balance and managing water resources. Utilizing hierarchical Bayesian models and linear regression within the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from the IPCC, this study evaluates changes in salinity levels and explores the complex variability under changing climatic conditions. By examining the interplay between salinity and climatic drivers such as precipitation, evaporation, and temperature changes, the study offers a comprehensive understanding of the factors affecting salinity. This approach offers knowledge of the driving forces behind salinity changes and highlights the broader implications of climate change on estuarine ecosystems. Ultimately, this study highlights the need for integrated adaptive management practices and contributes to the broader discussion on environmental management and climate resilience.