Detection and characterization of giant planets with <i>Gaia</i> astrometry

ABSTRACT Astrometric observations with Gaia are expected to play a valuable role in future exoplanet surveys. With current data from Gaia’s third data release (DR3), we are sensitive to periods from less than 1 yr to more than 4 yr but, unlike radial velocity (R.V.) are not as restricted by the orbital inclination of a potential planet. The presence and potential properties of a companion affect the primary’s renormalized unit weight error (RUWE) making this a valuable quantity in the search for exoplanets. Using this value and the fitted astrometric tracks from Gaia, we use Bayesian inference to constrain the mass and orbital parameters of companions in known systems. Combining this with R.V. measurements, we show it is possible to independently measure mass and inclination and suggest HD 66141 b is a possible brown dwarf with maximum mass 23.9$^{+7.2}_{-6.4}$ $\mathrm{ M}_{\mathrm{J}}$. We show how this method may be applied to directly imaged planets in the future, using $\beta$-Pictoris c as an example but note that the host star is bright and active, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions. We show how the next Gaia data release, which will include epoch astrometry, will allow us to accurately constrain orbital parameters from astrometric data alone, revolutionizing future searches for exoplanets. Combining predicted observational limits on planet mass with theoretical distributions, we estimate the probability that a star with a given RUWE will host a detectable planet, which will be highly valuable in planning future surveys.