Spatial analysis of mangrove ecosystem dynamics in Banyuwangi: a geographically weighted regression approach

This study examines the dynamics of mangrove land change in Banyuwangi, East Java, employing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to investigate the spatial variability in the drivers of mangrove deforestation. Our analysis identifies significant anthropogenic and natural elements that influence mangrove ecosystems, with findings indicating considerable variability in mangrove growth predictions across the region, ranging from approximately 0.10 to 18.67. The mean predicted growth rate is 3.68, with local R-squared values varying from 0.003 to 0.547, highlighting the model’s differential explanatory power across diverse locales. The results underscore the complex interplay between environmental conditions and human activities, revealing that proximity to agricultural areas, urban development, and infrastructure significantly impact mangrove deforestation rates. This study advocates for implementing spatially tailored conservation strategies that accommodate local ecological dynamics and anthropogenic pressures. By enhancing our understanding of these localized influences, our research supports more effective policy-making and land management practices to sustain mangrove ecosystems, which are vital for biodiversity, coastal protection, and carbon sequestration.