Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas across Canada experiencing synchronous extreme fire weather were also much more likely due to human influence on the climate. Simulated emissions from the 2023 wildfire season were eight times their 1985-2022 mean. With continued warming, the likelihood of extreme fire seasons is projected to increase further in the future, driving additional impacts on health, society, and ecosystems.
Authors
- Vivek Arora
- Elizaveta Malinina (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4102-2877)
- Quinn E. Barber (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0318-9446)
- Aranildo R. Lima (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2514-891X)
- Yongxiao Liang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3162-1494)
- Joe R. Melton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9414-064X)
- Piyush Jain (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0471-4663)
- Yan Boulanger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6181-8509)
- Nathan P. Gillett (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2957-0002)
- Megan C. Kirchmeier‐Young (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3907-8510)
- Alex J. Cannon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8025-3790)
- Marc‐André Parisien (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8158-7434)
- Salvatore R. Curasi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4534-3344)
- Xuebin Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7022-1744)
- Laura Van Vliet
- Karen Garcia Perdomo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2333-3358)
Institutions
- Canadian Forest Service (CA)
- Natural Resources Canada (CA)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA)
- University of Victoria (CA)
- Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (CA)
- Climate Centre (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2024-12-20
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00841-9
- Citations
- 20
- Primary Topic
- Fire effects on ecosystems
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.65
Funders
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada