Evaluating environmental, weather, and management influences for sustainable beekeeping in California and Quebec: Enhancing beehive survival predictions

Concerned about declining managed honeybee populations in North America, this study employed the random survival forest (RSF) model to assess beehive mortality, considering 18 diverse environmental, weather, and management practices. Our analysis focused on 15,906 and 6,690 beehives in California state, United States, and Quebec province, Canada for 2023, respectively. The accuracy of the RSF model was assessed through three accuracy metrics, namely concordance index (C-index), integrated Brier score (IBS), and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). Besides, the variables' importance was assessed in both California and Quebec under two criteria configurations, incorporating beehive management criteria and excluding such criteria. Including beehive-management criteria improved accuracy: for the test dataset in California, C-index of 0.8845, IBS of 0.0177, and time-dependent AUC of 0.8819; in Quebec, C-index of 0.9618, IBS of 0.0121, and time-dependent AUC of 0.9687. Comparing feature importance across the regions revealed differences, with sugar-feeding frequency, precipitation, and Miticide-treatment frequency exerting more influence in California and DEM, precipitation, and sugar-feeding frequency playing more substantial roles in Quebec. Beekeeping suitability maps for both regions were provided, classifying land suitability for beekeeping into five categories from very low to very high. By aggregating the areas classified as highly and very highly suitable for beekeeping, the beekeeping suitability maps indicated that 64.712% of California and 66.423% of Quebec exhibit suitable conditions for beekeeping. This study could contribute to reducing honeybee colony losses and supporting the advancement of sustainable agriculture in California and Quebec through 1) pinpointing essential environmental, ecological, and meteorological factors, alongside beehive management practices affecting beehive mortality, and 2) providing maps illustrating land suitability for beekeeping.