Business Risk Analysis of Production Variants Considering Technical Dependencies

Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPSs) are complex and heterogeneous systems, designed with interdisciplinary models and knowledge on stochastic production processes. The design and comparison of production variants, e.g., for (self-)adaptation of a CPPS, requires the validation of engineering dependencies and technical limitations of the CPPS. However, traditional risk analysis approaches do not validate business concepts with the technical capabilities, dependencies, and limitations in the engineering process. This paper introduces the approach Risk Analysis in Engineering Processes (REP) to (i) design and validate the business performance model of a production variant with the technical domain dependencies; (ii) model and evaluate the stochastic production variance; and (iii) conduct business risk analysis to identify the factors that are likely to influence the production variants’ business performance. REP builds on Markov Chains and the Production Asset Network domain model that can be designed and updated in early CPPS engineering phases. We evaluated the REP in a feasibility study with data from a real-world welding line for electrical mobility. The results indicated that REP is feasible and effective.