Trends and Prospects for the Development of Industry Specialization: Regional Aspects

Objective: The article aims to substantiate the significance of assessing regional industry specialization and identifying key sectors in the socioeconomic development of the North Caucasus Federal District (Russia) based on the analysis of organizational turnover and the specialization coefficient. Methods: An economic-statistical method was applied to evaluate each activity’s contribution to value-added creation and identify structural changes in the regional economy. Results and Discussion: The largest investments in the North Caucasus Federal District have been directed toward replacing worn-out machinery and equipment and increasing production capacities while maintaining or expanding product ranges. This approach supports adaptation to sanctions. However, fluctuations in investment levels pose risks to achieving regional goals. The study shows that the highest risks to stable development are typical of the Republic of Ingushetia, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania. These risks are minimal in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Stavropol Territory, and the Chechen Republic. Research Implications: The obtained specialization coefficients allow the authors to identify the leading sectors in the socioeconomic development of the North Caucasus Federal District. Originality/Value: Identifying the prospects for industry specialization is essential for forming regional policy. The mechanism of regional specialization should account for existing resources and their mobility potential driven by investment. Government support through major import substitution projects also plays a crucial role. The developed risk matrix reflecting increases in fixed capital investment helps identify promising regional industry specializations.