UK Battery Electric Vehicle Sales Prediction Using ARIMA and SARIMA Models

As a crucial part of fulfilling its commitment to the Paris Agreement, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is a milestone of the UKs strategy to achieve environmental sustainability. The UK government has been employing tactics like providing subsidies to EV buyers and exempting EVs from congestion charge and road tax to promote the sales of clean fuel vehicles. Among these varieties of EVs, only battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are running completely on electric power with zero emission, which makes it more worthy to study the sales pattern and predict the future sales figures of BEVs. This passage employs Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to forecast the future sales figures based on the past sales of UKs BEVs from 2019 to 2024. It can be concluded from the prediction that sales figures are about to keep the trend of raising for the following year meanwhile strong fluctuations could be witnessed between March and September. This conclusion should be to provide a foresight of UKs BEV market for investors and BEV manufacturers, as well as a better understanding of UKs transition to sustainable transportation system for policy makers.