Understanding the Slowing of Chinas Economic Growth: An Empirical Examination of the Effects of Opening-up

Understanding the factors behind the slowdown in Chinas economic growth since the early 21st century is crucial. This study uses a linear regression model to analyze the impact of Opening-up on economic growth, employing provincial-level panel data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) for 1997-2023. Robustness is tested by including variables such as total imports and exports at the business units location, gross regional product, and total imports and exports at domestic destinations and sources in RMB. The study also examines heterogeneity across regions, time periods, trade types, and economic sectors. Key findings include: 1) A positive correlation between Opening-up and economic growth; 2) Variation in the impact of Opening-up based on region, time, trade type, and sector; 3) External shocks can weaken the benefits of Opening-up; 4) The economic slowdown is partly due to uneven regional development, external shocks, high reliance on imports, and insufficient industrial restructuring.