Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts

Abstract. The World Food Programme, in collaboration with the Mozambique National Meteorology Institute, is partnering with several governmental and non-governmental organizations to establish an advanced early warning system for droughts in pilot districts across Mozambique. The “Ready, Set & Go!” system is operational in Mozambique for activating anticipatory action (AA) against droughts based on predefined thresholds, triggers and pre-allocated financing. The system uses bias-corrected and downscaled seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as core information to anticipate severe reductions in rainfall during the rainy season. This information guides the implementation of actions to reduce the impacts of rainfall deficits in the critical window between a forecast and the onset of the drought event. Within this window of opportunity, the system releases an alert for readiness (Ready) and activation (Set) preceding the mobilization of anticipatory action on the ground (Go). With the recent adoption of the Southern African Development Community “Maputo Declaration on Bridging the Gap between Early Warning and Early Action”, member states have committed to enhancing the reach of early warning system by leaving no one behind. Therefore, there is a need to assess the opportunities and limitations of the Ready, Set & Go! system to scale up drought AA information to all districts in Mozambique. This study describes the Ready, Set & Go! system, which uses ensemble forecasts of the Standardized Precipitation Index to trigger anticipatory action against droughts on a seasonal timescale. The Ready, Set & Go! optimizes the use of seasonal forecast information by choosing triggers for anticipatory action based on verification statistics and on a double-confirmation process, which combines longer lead times with shorter lead time forecasts for issuing drought alerts. In this study, we show the strengths of the system by benchmarking it against three simpler triggering approaches. Our findings indicate that the Ready, Set & Go! system has significant potential to scale up AA activities against severe droughts throughout the entire rainy season, covering on average 76 % of the Mozambican districts. This approach outperforms the three benchmarked methods, demonstrating higher hit rates, extended lead times and a lower false alarm. If efforts are concentrated on the first part of the rainy season, national coverage against severe droughts could be expanded to 87 % of all districts. By aligning with the objectives outlined in the “Maputo Declaration” and the “Early Warning for All” initiative, this research contributes to safeguarding communities against the adverse impacts of climate-related events, aligning with the ambitious goal of universal protection by 2027.