DEVELOPMENT OF A COMPREHENSIVE DIGITAL MODEL OF COST-EFFECTIVE QUARANTINE MEASURES AGAINST THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC

The worldwide development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic is characterized by delayed decision-making on harsh quarantine measures in almost all countries.It is not difficult to assume that the adoption of too harsh measures that are optimal from a medical point of view can lead to disastrous consequences for the economy, and hence worsening social situation.Hence, the need arises to quickly develop a comprehensive economic and epidemiological model that could combine well-developed epidemic management models with well-developed models of economic growth management, which is the goal and result of this work.A modified SIR model was used as the basic epidemic model.As a model of economic growth, we used the probabilistic model of mixed economic systems that we developed.The integration of these models in an extremely simplified version into a single system of discrete equations has been performed, which can be used as a comprehensive economic and epidemiological model.