Lessons learned from the ex-post evaluation of light rail users in an Italian city

In the last decade, Italian municipalities implemented urban light rail lines, yet forecasting passenger numbers often overlooks heterogeneity in individuals' characteristics and travel habits. For this reason, in the current paper, we investigate which factors influence the frequency of using a new light rail service. The data employed for the study come from a survey conducted in the city of Cagliari (Italy) among a sample of light rail users who started to use this means of transport after its introduction. The analysis reveals a preference for light rail due to factors like travel time and traffic stress over cost considerations. The construction of an ordered probit model highlights the significance of performance characteristics, prior modal choices, and socio-demographic variables in determining light rail usage frequency. The paper concludes with actionable recommendations: acknowledging individual heterogeneity in promoting light rail use, envisioning scenarios beyond infrastructure, and emphasizing monitoring to assess the new line's impact and formulate effective behavioural measures.