Niche dynamics and climate change sensitivity in western Palearctic Zamenis ratsnakes (Reptilia: Colubridae)

Abstract Climate change poses a significant threat to ectothermic, dispersal-limited reptiles such as Zamenis snakes in the western Palearctic. This study used ensemble ecological models to assess the potential distribution of six Zamenis species under climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). In addition, we examined niche dynamics through overlap, equivalency, and similarity analyses. Results reveal distinct ecological niches for each species, primarily influenced by temperature and precipitation. Projected distribution shifts vary across species, with some species like Z. persicus and Z. situla showing potential for range expansion, while others such as Z. lineatus and Z. scalaris face significant habitat loss. Z. hohenackeri and Z. longissimus exhibit complex patterns of both expansion and contraction. Niche analyses indicate varying degrees of overlap among species, with a trend toward niche conservatism. This study underscores the importance of niche ecology in understanding climate change impacts and highlights the need for species-specific conservation strategies.