Navigating Geopolitical Shocks: Comparative Strategies of the Visegrád 4 and Indonesia in Global Value Chains

This paper explores the influence of geopolitical events on global value chains, particularly focusing on the Visegrád 4 countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and Indonesia. The objective is to analyse how these semi-peripheral nations, which are more susceptible to geopolitical shocks, navigate their vulnerabilities and policy options. The methodology includes a comparative analysis of two case studies: the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on commodity value chains and the implications of the rise of electromobility. Major findings reveal both similarities and differences in the economic structures and policy responses of the V4 countries and Indonesia, highlighting their approaches to decoupling and derisking. Despite facing similar problems in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the V4 countries pursued decoupling while Indonesia attempted to reverse the decoupling trends. Both regions attempt to benefit from the rise of electromobility by encouraging reshoring into their jurisdictions, although the tools they use vary due to differences in the underlying economic thought. In conclusion, the paper emphasises the importance of understanding how semi-peripheral countries can strategically leverage their positions in response to the intricate geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges that shape global value chains.