Mediation is What Authoritarian States Make of it: Assessing the Role of National Identity Consolidation in Chinese and Turkish Diplomacy in Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Abstract The absence of ripeness in Russia’s war against Ukraine begs the question of why both China and Türkiye have intervened diplomatically in the conflict. One possible answer resides in the role of mediation and diplomacy in ameliorating the ‘authoritarian control problem.’ Informed by constructivist insights on the co-constitutive relationship between identities and interests, we advance the hypothesis that Chinese and Turkish involvement in the war in Ukraine is primarily explained by its utility for consolidating national identity and, by extension, securing regime authority over domestic society. We test this hypothesis through use of critical event analysis, examining major installments in the trajectory of Chinese and Turkish diplomacy in the war. Our analysis reveals a correlation between Chinese and Turkish mediation and the self-serving process of national identity consolidation. We conclude with consideration of the implications of this finding for this special issue’s theme of ‘peace through victory.’