FORECASTING THE RISKS OF UNCONTROLLED DEFORESTATION IN UKRAINE

The forestry sector in Ukraine is currently confronted with a multitude of challenges, including the repercussions of climate change, ecological issues, economic challenges, and the consequences of military actions initiated by the Russian Federation, which have caused extensive damage to forests across the country. This highlights the necessity for research aimed at assessing threats and risks in the forestry sector, as well as evaluating the institutional capacity to ensure the sustainable development of the industry. The research was conducted in accordance with the mandate of the Temporary Investigative Commission of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which was established to examine instances of malfeasance and non-compliance with environmental safety standards in the domain of environmental protection. The methodology of this study is based on a risk-based approach that involves a systematic analysis of threats affecting the forest sector in Ukraine and an assessment of their impact on environmental safety. The principal instrument for data collection was an online survey of experts drawn from a range of sectors, including government agencies, local communities, research institutes, non-governmental organisations and businesses. The data was subjected to statistical analysis, including correlation and regression analysis, which enabled an assessment of the relationship between the level of threats and institutional capacity. The aim of this article is twofold: firstly, to identify the principal threats and risks facing Ukraine's forestry sector; and secondly, to evaluate the extent of the institutional capacity to mitigate these threats. The study identified 153 indicators that characterise threats and 102 indicators that describe the institutional capacity of the sector. Following preliminary analysis and data cleansing, a high-quality sample was constructed based on expert assessments, which helped to avoid logical errors and enhance the reliability of the results. The results of the study indicate that uncontrolled mass deforestation represents one of the most significant environmental threats, resulting in a reduction in the population of flora and fauna. The probability of this threat materialising was calculated to be 60.89%. The correlation and regression analysis showed that out of 102 indicators of institutional capacity, only 14 have a significant correlation with the threat of uncontrolled logging, and all 11 vulnerability indicators showed a statistically significant relationship with this threat. The key factors affecting the reduction of the risk associated with these threats are the level of bureaucratic obstacles in the performance of official duties by forestry employees and the level of bureaucracy in the provision of services to the public. The findings of the study indicate a relatively low level of institutional capacity within Ukraine's forestry sector. This suggests a need to improve management processes in order to reduce risks in this area. The recommendations developed based on the obtained data can be employed to devise strategic measures to guarantee environmental safety and the sustainable development of Ukraine's forestry sector.