Model for reconstruction of individualized external exposure doses for persons living in an territory contaminated with radionuclides as a result of the Chernobyl accident

A statistical model has been developed for reconstructing individualized external exposure doses for persons living in a contaminated territory with radionuclides. The basis of the model is the data of individual dosimetric control of external exposure doses of more than 35,000 residents of the Gomel region and informative factor-signs that influence the formation of an individual external exposure dose. The model has a high degree of adequacy, as evidenced by the adjusted coefficients of determination from 0,71 to 0,74. For the adequacy of the application of the model for each calendar year, a coefficient was introduced that determines the decrease in the external exposure dose over time. The calculated values of external exposure doses, taking into account the factor, correlate with the data of individual dosimetric control, the deviation of the calculated values is ± 9%. Verification of the model was carried out on the generated control sample, the estimation error was ~10%. The developed model allows, with high accuracy and the least error, to reconstruction the individualized doses of external exposure of people living in a contaminated area, employed in various social spheres.