Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Water Resource Disparities in Yangtze River Economic Zone

The process of urbanization, which leads to increased population density, changes in land use patterns, and heightened demand for industrial and domestic water use, exacerbates the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources. This study examines the discrepancies between the supply and demand of water resources amidst urbanization, utilizing data from 110 cities within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) spanning from 2012 to 2021. The research employs the projection pursuit clustering model and the Dagum Gini coefficient method to evaluate the developmental status of water resources. While the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region maintains a leading position with a water resources development score of 9.827 in 2023, there is a 2.2% increase in intra-regional disparity. The water resources development score for the City Cluster in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (CCRYR) has experienced a decline, from 8.263 in 2012 to 8.016 in 2021; however, a reduction in intra-regional disparities has been observed since the implementation of the 2016 Outline of the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Plan (YREBP), which suggests the policy’s efficacy. The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone (CCEZ), despite its initially lower level of development, has demonstrated significant growth, with scores rising from 7.036 in 2012 to 7.347 in 2021. Collectively, the water resources development in the YREB exhibits an upward trend, yet the development remains uneven. The CCRYR shows a catching-up effect because of the YREBP, and the differences in other regions are widening. The research results provide decision-making support for water resources planning and management, and are of great significance in promoting the sustainable use of water resources.