Turkey will look to shape post-Assad Syria

Significance Ankara seemingly played a role in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)’s drive on Damascus, while the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has become one of the most powerful forces in post-Assad Syria. The risky bet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made in 2011 to back the rebels has paid off. He is eager to capitalise on it. Impacts Washington will at the very least seek guarantees from Ankara on curbing the resurgence of Islamic State. Ankara is already eyeing lucrative contracts for Turkish construction companies as Syria looks to rebuild. The return of Syrian refugees could help Erdogan’s domestic standing but may deprive Turkish businesses of cheap labour.