Development of a high-resolution ocean ensemble future projection dataset for the North Pacific incorporating simple biogeochemical processes

Abstract In this study, we developed a new version of the future ocean regional projection dataset in the North Pacific (FORP-NP10) by performing an ensemble of historical and multi-scenario future projection simulations from 1960 to 2100 using a high-resolution ocean downscaling model system driven by surface forcings based on the atmospheric data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5). This version is characterized by the inclusion of simple biogeochemical processes within the simulations of the multi-case (four forcing cases) and multi-future projection scenarios (representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5) using a mesoscale eddy-resolving (approximately 10 km) horizontal resolution. The dataset reasonably represented the main biogeochemical properties in the North Pacific and around Japan, such as surface CO 2 flux, pH, subsurface oxygen, surface nitrate, and chlorophyll, as well as the ocean physics of the regions, including the mesoscale/frontal structures of the Kuroshio, Kuroshio Extension, and mixed layer depth. We assessed the bias tendencies and structures of these properties by comparing them with observational reference data and the low-resolution model results. Our ensemble dataset consistently projected future upper-ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in nutrient and primary production in the twenty-first century (reported as global analyses in recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in the regions surrounding Japan, revealing that the future changes exhibited spatial contrasts or varying tendencies in the regions.