New deal may only partly ease Ethiopia-Somalia tension

Significance The declaration effectively overrides a January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that triggered a major rupture in Ethiopia-Somalia relations, when Ethiopia proposed to recognise Somaliland’s independence from Somalia in return for a naval base on Somaliland soil. Impacts The MoU may prove a strategic blunder by Abiy, who has destabilised regional geopolitics and earned much ill will but achieved little. Djibouti may hope Ethiopia will now consider its offer to jointly develop and manage Tadjoura port more seriously. Improving relations between Turkey and Egypt may mean frictions over their respective interests in Somalia remain muted, at least for now.