Impact Path of COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Economy Using Input-Output and Complex Network Methods

With the outbreak of COVID-19 having spread worldwide, the global economy has been devastated. To explore the pandemic's impact path on the global economy from the global, regional, and industry sector levels, we used complex network methods and Dijkstra's algorithm to calculate the network graph model, network centrality, intra-regional economic closeness, inter-regional economic closeness, global value chain division degree, upstream and downstream closeness, industry sector centrality, and industry sector path centrality. The conclusions that follow are drawn. (1) A complex trade network has been formed among countries around the world. The United States (U.S.), China, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom are at the centre of this complex trade network. The impact of the pandemic on the network will cause a chain reaction in the trade network and significantly weaken global production capacity. (2) China, the U.S., Japan, Germany, and other countries can be considered "inward-oriented," and the impact of the pandemic on the internal industries of these country is greater than those on the outside; Latvia, Lithuania and Malta have the characteristics of "export-oriented," and the impact of the pandemic situation on the internal sector of the country is directly transmitted to the outside. (3) There is a strong economic interaction among the countries within the three major trade circles in the world. The impact of the pandemic on the economy will cause a chain reaction within these circles, and it will be transmitted to the global scope through core countries, such as the U.S., China, and Germany.