COVID-19, food insecurity and panic buying behavior: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

Abstract The uncertainties, such as the pandemic (COVID-19), natural calamities, and war, disrupt agricultural production and supply chains, leading to concerns about food access in developing countries. Therefore, this study uses panel data collected through three survey rounds in June and September 2020 and January 2021 to analyze changes in household food expenditure and consumption behaviors and to investigate the association between household characteristics and food insecurity. The results show that households with diverse income sources, including multiple farm products, non-farm businesses, and remittances from absent members, are less likely to reduce food consumption quality and quantity, and be in the lower tail of food expenditure distribution. -However, households in the upper tail of the food expenditure distribution aggressively stock up on food in the second quarter of the year, fearing that lockdown measures would interrupt the food supply. These households tend to have an urban way of living characterized by salaried jobs, small family size, high educational attainment, and proximity to the capital city. The levels of food expenditure remain high even after the lifting of lockdown and movement restrictions, and the reason might be possible uncertainty about crop harvests, despite the eventual good harvests in the year. Overall, these findings suggest that diversification of income sources for rural households in developing countries can help households cope with disruptions to food production and supply chains. The findings also suggest that policies to ensure food access during the pandemic should target households with limited income sources and those in the lower tail of the food expenditure distribution.