Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou City, China, 2005–2023

The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou is on the rise in 2010-2016 and 2022-2023. In this study, the SARIMA prediction model was compared with the FB Prophet model. Data for more years can then be observed to better predict trends in the incidence of HFMD, providing a basis for prevention strategies and resource allocation. Further research can optimize the model to enhance predictive ability to improve the understanding and management of Chinese rival foot and mouth disease.