Identification of direct and indirect drivers of land use and land cover changes from agriculture to Eucalyptus plantation using the DPSIR framework in Sinan and Mecha Districts of Northwestern Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, several factors are driving the conversion of agricultural land into Eucalyptus plantations. This study focuses on the Sinan and Mecha districts in northwest Ethiopia to identify the drivers behind this shift from agriculture to Eucalyptus forests. We used purposive and simple random sampling to select study areas and households. Data were collected through household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. For data analysis, we employed descriptive statistics, ranking of drivers with a ranking index using the principle of weighted average, t-test, and a binary logistic regression model. The results reveal several key drivers of land use change. The most significant direct factors include using trees as an alternative income source, declining soil fertility, increasing demand for Eucalyptus wood products, and anticipated future returns from Eucalyptus plantations. Additionally, high agricultural input costs, rising wood prices, land degradation, and the shading effects of Eucalyptus on adjacent plots were identified as proximate drivers. Econometric regression analysis shows that family size and landholding size positively influence land use decisions, while distance to nearby towns negatively affects these choices. Respondents also reported challenges such as limited cropland, insufficient grazing land and fodder, land fragmentation, reduced agricultural production, and food shortages following land use conversion. Addressing these challenges is vital for the well-being and resilience of rural households. Implementing strategies like sustainable land management and effective land use policies can help enhance food security, economic stability, and overall quality of life for these communities. Allocating resources to improve soil fertility and landscape management will support sustainable agricultural practices and environmental conservation, benefiting rural households. The findings of this research will provide valuable insights for guiding future research, practices, and policies aimed at sustainable land use planning and food self-sufficiency in rural Ethiopia.