Flatback futures—scenarios and adaptation pathways for a marine turtle facing long-term change

Australia’s endemic flatback turtle Natator depressus is the focus of a 60 yr conservation program aimed at securing the long-term persistence of healthy populations in the northwest of Australia. In this region, climate change and industrial development are changing the conditions in which flatback turtles live. These conditions are moving outside the historical bounds for the system, and changes are projected to continue for many decades, which necessitates a long-term view in conservation planning. Here, we developed illustrative scenarios spanning a range of plausible biological and socio-economic futures for flatback turtles in which the intensity of climate change and development vary. Scenarios were then used to draft adaptation pathways that allow consideration of alternative conservation management and policy options, show the lead times needed to develop these options, and set out near-term actions to help managers choose and implement such options, if and when needed. While the future trajectory of change is uncertain, these approaches can be used to future-proof thinking for conservation managers, integrating near-term and long-term imperatives, and should be used widely for improved outcomes in natural systems where human impacts are likely. While our study is focused on flatback turtles in northwest Australia, the approach presented here can also be applied to support future thinking and planning to support the conservation of other protected species.