Climate-driven range expansion via long-distance larval dispersal

Climate-driven warming and changes in major ocean currents enable poleward larval transport and range expansions of many marine species. Here, we report the population genetic structure of the gastropod Kelletia kelletii , a commercial fisheries species and subtidal predator with top-down food web effects, whose populations have recently undergone climate-driven northward range expansion. We used reduced representation genomic sequencing (RAD-seq) to genotype 598 adults from 13 locations spanning approximately 800 km across the historical and expanded range of this species. Analyses of 40747 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed evidence for long-distance dispersal of K. kelletii larvae from a central historical range site (Point Loma, CA, USA) hundreds of km into the expanded northern range (Big Creek, CA), which seems most likely to result from transport during an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event rather than consistent on-going gene flow. Furthermore, the high genetic differentiation among some sampled expanded-range populations and their close genetic proximity with distinct populations from the historical range suggested multiple origins of the expanded-range populations. Given that the frequency and magnitude of ENSO events are predicted to increase with climate change, understanding the factors driving changes in population connectivity is crucial for establishing effective management strategies to ensure the persistence of this and other economically and ecologically important species.