Expanding foresight methodology to better understand the unknown future and identify hard-to-predict events

Abstract This study focuses on the integration of methods from different theories and research concepts into futures studies in order to better understand the obscure future through the identification of unpredictable and hard-to-predict rare events and factors. Particular emphasis in this study is placed on systems theory, cybernetics, synergetics, theory of chaos, bifurcation theory, catastrophe theory, thermodynamics, and the theory of self-organized criticality that could elucidate the unknown and offer new insights to futures studies. White, black and grey swans, dragon kings, wild cards, and weak signals are rare and high-impact events commonly referred to in the risk management literature, synergetics, and futures studies. The academic literature does not always accurately identify commonalities and differences between them, as well as relevant research tools. This study clarifies the categories of unknown and types of uncertainty associated with these events, their characteristics, and the related existing foresight methods. It is also suggested to enrich foresight methodology by adding instruments from other disciplines.