Determining The Causation Probability of Ship Collision in the Barito River Using Fault Tree analysis (FTA) & Bayesian Network Modelling

Abstract In Indonesia, five of the twenty-five vital ports are situated along rivers, with the Port of Banjarmasin having the highest visit value. Over the previous five years from 2017 to 2021, 20 collision-type accidents have occurred on the Barito River shipping channel. With the large number of ship collision accidents and fatalities occurring on the Barito River, it is necessary to make initial efforts to determine the probability of the main causal factors in order to carry out a risk assessment. This paper aims to determine the causation probability of ship collisions on the Barito River so that it can be used in risk assessments to formulate recommendations for mitigating the risk of ship collisions. The causes for ship collisions are identified using fault tree analysis (FTA) and modelled using bayesian networks, including the technical factors, environment factors, and human factors. Based on FTA result and BN sensitivity analysis, the main factor causing ship collision accidents with the largest probability value is environmental factors.