Key Factors Influencing Drinking Water Advisories on Indigenous Reserves in Canada: An XGBoost Analysis

Access to safe drinking water on Indigenous reserves is a serious issue within Canada. This research identifies the importance of variables in determining the duration and frequency of drinking water advisories (DWAs). Data related to Indigenous communities were collected from a variety of federal agencies and combined into a single dataset. XGBoost, a machine learning algorithm, was used to characterize the importance over 19 years of available DWA data from 2004 to 2023. The results show the importance of factors such as types of reservoir and operator certification level for long-lasting and frequent DWAs. Underground and surface reservoirs are shown to be susceptible to microbial contaminants, and the small size of some reservoirs can lead to insufficient chlorine contact time. The operator’s status is significant in determining duration, as a community with no certified operator is 3.8 times more likely to have a DWA that lasts more than two weeks, compared to a level IV operator. These findings can potentially inform decision-makers as to which communities require more assistance and effective strategies for allocating financial resources. This research highlights the importance of ensuring modern infrastructure is provided for Indigenous communities in Canada and financial resources are allocated to hire qualified individuals to operate the infrastructure.