Modelización de la distribución geográfica de Vespa velutina nigrithorax (du Buysson, 1905) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae) en la península ibérica, con enfoque en Andalucía, España

The Spain’s colonization by the Asiatic wasp (Vespa velutina nigrithorax) leads to serious ecologic and socioeconomic consequences. Furthermore, this invasive wasp has recently expanded to Andalusia. In the present study, a species distribution model has been performed in order to analyze the geographic expansion of the Asiatic wasp in the Iberian Peninsula, making a focus on the Andalusian community. Our initial hypothesis sustains that the varied Andalusian topography, alongside with the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, will enable the existence of microclimatic niches adequate for the Asiatic wasp. Our modelling, in line with previous modellings, confirms that the temperature and the precipitation are the two most decisive environmental factors in the success of the establishment of the Asiatic wasp. However, our modelling is less effective in its prediction in respect to the Andalusian territory. Nonetheless, our initial hypothesis is supported by previous modellings, which identify the oceanic and subtropical mediterranean microclimates, typical of mountainous and coastal areas, respectively, as those favorable for the invasive wasp. The suitability of considering preventive measurements is remarked, as zones declared as Biosphere Reserves, and therefore, with a high human attendance, could be affected.