Stochastic modeling of single-cell gene expression adaptation reveals non-genomic contribution to evolution of tumor subclones

Cancer progression is an evolutionary process driven by the selection of cells adapted to gain growth advantage. We present a formal study on the adaptation of gene expression in subclonal evolution. We model evolutionary changes in gene expression as stochastic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, jointly leveraging the evolutionary history of subclones and single-cell expression data. Applying our model to sublines derived from single cells of a mouse melanoma revealed that sublines with distinct phenotypes are underlined by different patterns of gene expression adaptation, indicating non-genetic mechanisms of cancer evolution. Sublines previously observed to be resistant to anti-CTLA4 treatment showed adaptive expression of genes related to invasion and non-canonical Wnt signaling, whereas sublines that responded to treatment showed adaptive expression of genes related to proliferation and canonical Wnt signaling. Our results suggest that clonal phenotypes emerge as the result of specific adaptivity patterns of gene expression. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the supplemental information.