Simulation and Assessment of Episodic Dust Storms in Eastern Saudi Arabia Using HYSPLIT Trajectory Model and Satellite Observations

The “dust belt” region extending from the western Sahara to the Gobi Desert frequently generates severe dust storms that cause hazardous air quality and disrupt daily activities. Dust storm management systems with proactive mitigation strategies can minimize the detrimental impacts of dust storms. This study applies the HYSPLIT model to simulate dust storms in Saudi Arabia, specifically targeting the eastern region. The study’s main objective is to calibrate and validate the model’s dust storm prediction module for the eastern region of Saudi Arabia. The validated HYSPLIT model, with optimized parameters such as threshold friction velocity, particle release rate, and dry deposition velocity from model calibration studies, showed a strong linear correlation between measured and predicted values. It achieved an R2 of 0.9965, indicating excellent model accuracy. The main findings of the source apportionment approach, employing air particle backward trajectories and frequency analyses, indicated that the northern regions, specifically Iraq and Syria, were the primary sources of the severe dust storms observed in the receptor area. The outcomes of this study will be a reference for future research aimed at improving dust storm management systems and selecting sites for tree-planting campaigns under the “Saudi & Middle East Green Initiatives”.