Anthropogenically protected but naturally disturbed: a specialist carnivore at its southern range periphery

Abstract Understanding how species distributions and associated habitat are impacted by natural and anthropogenic disturbance is central for the conservation of rare forest carnivores dependent on subalpine forests. Canada lynx at their range periphery occupy subalpine forests that are structured by large-scale fire and insect outbreaks that increase with climate change. In addition, the Southern Rocky Mountains of the western United States is a destination for winter recreationists worldwide with an associated high degree of urbanization and resort development. We modeled habitat for a reintroduced population of Canada lynx in the Southern Rocky Mountains using an ensemble species distribution model built on abiotic and biotic covariates and validated with independent lynx locations including satellite telemetry, aerial telemetry, camera traps, den locations, and winter backtracking. Based on this model, we delineated Likely and Core lynx-habitat as thresholds that captured 95% and 50% of testing data, respectively. Likely (5727 km 2 ) and Core (441 km 2 ) habitat were spatially limited and patchily distributed across western Colorado, USA. Natural (e.g., insect outbreaks, fire) and anthropogenic (e.g., urbanization, ski resort development, forest management) disturbance overlapped 37% of Likely lynx-habitat and 24 % of highest quality Core. Although overlap with fire disturbance was low (5%), future burns likely represent the greatest potential impact over decades-long timeframes. The overlap of publicly owned lands administratively classified as “protected” with Likely (62% overlap) and Core (49%) habitat may insulate lynx from permanent habitat conversion due to direct human disturbance (urbanization, ski resort development).