A System Dynamics Stability Model for Discrete Production Ramp-Up

Manufacturing companies are increasingly challenged to deliver customizable products with shorter time to market and higher quality while adhering to sustainability requirements. To meet these challenges, the frequency and importance of production ramp-ups will increase in the future. However, most ramp-ups still fail to meet targets due to unpredictable equipment failures, operator errors, and system complexity. We propose a system dynamics model that captures the unique dynamics of ramp-up phases by integrating stability and disturbance factors that influence the key performance indicators overall equipment effectiveness, process capability, and production output. A systematic literature review informed the identification of stability factors, which were validated through expert interviews in the automotive industry. Our system dynamic simulation results indicate that control factors realistically influence production system behaviour during different ramp-up phases. Despite some limitations regarding the effects of maintenance personnel and engineering changes on key performance indicators, our model effectively simulates realistic ramp-up behaviour. The findings highlight the need for tailored models that consider specific ramp-up contexts and emphasize the importance of data acquisition for enhanced performance prognosis in future research.