The impact of dam management and rainfall patterns on flooding in the Niger Delta: using Sentinel-1 SAR data

This study explored how dam operation and rainfall patterns interact to influence flooding in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. This study utilizes Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data to analyze the flood events from 2018 to 2022, focusing on key locations such as Obiafu (downstream), Kainji/Jebba, and Lagdo dams (upstream). Analyzed Sentinel-1 satellite data [European Space Agency (ESA), 2018–2022], shuttle Radar Topography Mission, alongside rainfall data [Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS), 2018–2022] and surface water level to assess flood variations between 2018 and 2022. The flood extent was differentiated from that of permanent water bodies using Sentinel-1 images with an RGB band (Snap 7.0), and the rainfall patterns were examined via inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation (ArcGIS 10.5). The findings reveal that the intensity and timing of flooding vary significantly across these regions. Obiafu experienced high flooding in October 2020 and 2022, while Kainji/Jebba and Lagdo dams had contrasting flood severities during these periods. Additionally, a comparative analysis of hydrograph data from these locations shows a delayed downstream response, highlighting the need for coordinated water release strategies to mitigate flood risks. The results also indicate that upstream dam operations, particularly water releases, contribute to downstream flooding, although local rainfall patterns remain a crucial factor. By aligning SAR data with real-time water levels, this study emphasizes the importance of integrating satellite-based monitoring with hydrological models to improve flood prediction accuracy and minimize socio-economic impacts in the Niger Delta. The study concludes that enhanced flood management strategies, incorporating both rainfall forecasting and dam operation schedules, are critical for reducing flood-related vulnerabilities in the region.