Where should sports events be held under global warming? A case study of the African Cup of Nations

• The WBGT index is investigated across the entire African continent. • Climate change could increase the WBGT index across Africa. • WBGT is highly sensitive to increases in temperature and relative humidity. • Climate change could reduce the number of countries suitable for hosting the Afcon. • SSP1–2.6 shows a moderate WBGT rise, supporting hosting viability in more countries. Africa is a global hotspot for climate change, affecting various sectors, including sports. Against this backdrop, major international sports events such as the African Cup of Nations (Afcon) could become more complex under global warming. This study examines projected changes in the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) index used as a proxy to determine suitable Afcon host countries under climate change conditions. Using eleven CMIP6 simulations from NASA's NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, downscaled to a 25 km resolution, the analysis covers three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) climate change scenarios for the near future (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100), relative to 1985–2014. The model ensemble mean reproduced the spatial distribution of the WBGT index and related variables well with the reference datasets over Africa but with some biases. Projections indicate a significant WBGT increase across Africa under all scenarios and periods, especially under SSP5–8.5 in the far future, with a value of about 6 °C. Many countries may transition from an unrestricted to a high-risk status. Climate change could notably reduce the number of Afcon host countries under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. This study provides valuable insights for Afcon hosting and climate change integration, contributing to resilience and sustainability in urban environments hosting such events.