Modern Development of Soil Organic Matter Dynamics Models (Review)

Abstract Soils are the largest terrestrial reservoir of organic carbon, and so even small changes in soil carbon stocks can have significant effects on the atmosphere and climate. To select effective strategies to mitigate climate change, predictions of how soils will respond to future changes in climate and land use are needed. Achieving meaningful predictions requires a deep understanding of the highly complex, open, multicomponent soil organic matter system. One of the most effective methods for predicting the dynamics of soil organic matter is mathematical modeling. Process-oriented (physically based) models make it possible to present the basic concepts about the mechanisms that determine the behavior of this system in a mathematically formalized form and conduct a quantitative analysis. The uncertainty of the forecasts depends on the level of development of the theory explaining the dynamics of soil organic matter, the models representing it and their experimental support. This review examines the achievements of the last decade in modeling the role of microorganisms in the stabilization of soil organic matter, the concept of soil saturation with organic carbon, and temperature control, as well as the development of reactive transport models describing the dynamics of organic carbon in the soil profile and the representation of the dynamics of soil organic matter in global climate models. Unsolved problems associated with the high variability in the structure of new generation soil organic matter dynamics models are discussed.