Changes in Transport Demand and Modal Shift on GHG Emissions in Thailand

Thailand's economic success relies heavily on its transportation infrastructure, which is a major contributor to GHG emissions. To address these challenges, Thailand has developed transportation infrastructure plan focused on enhancing its transport system, promoting mass transit, and adopting advanced technologies to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study developed a transport demand model for Thailand to estimate future demand and to assess the impact of behavioral changes on modal shifts, considering mode-specific costs. The transport demand model was then linked with the AIM/Enduse to analyze long-term energy consumption and GHG emissions pathways. Scenarios, including reference, COVID, and transport modal shift policy, estimate significant impacts from changes in behavior and a shift to mass transit on energy use and GHG emissions. By prioritizing public transport infrastructure, Thailand will substantially increase its transport demand, however, energy consumption and GHG emissions will decrease by 23.1% and 22.0% in 2060 compared to reference scenario.