Analysis of Adoption Rates and Planning of Residential Prosumers based on Solar Rooftops PV

The growing adoption of solar rooftop PV in residential sectors is transforming energy consumption patterns and driving the rise of electricity prosumers. This study focuses on analyzing the adoption rates and strategic planning for residential prosumers in Thailand, with an emphasis on solar rooftop PV systems. Utilizing the Bass Diffusion Model, a market penetration curve was developed to forecast the adoption of residential prosumers, incorporating an innovation coefficient of 0.03. Key factors such as economic incentives, solar irradiance, installation costs, and government policies were integrated into the forecasting model, enabling a comprehensive assessment of prosumer adoption trends. The findings suggest that regions with higher solar potential and robust government incentives are likely to see faster growth in residential prosumers, while areas with less favorable policy environments will experience slower adoption rates. This trend aligns with previous studies, which have highlighted similar patterns in other regions globally. Behavioral and technological factors, including environmental awareness and advancements in PV technology and ESS, further enhance adoption rates. However, the increasing number of residential prosumers introduces significant challenges for grid stability and management. This study also highlights the importance of smart grid technology due to the growing number of distributed energy sources. It calls for the utilization of AI models for load forecasting and demand response mechanisms to ensure the efficient integration of prosumers into the utility grid. In particular, regions with high concentrations of prosumers may require targeted policies to maintain grid reliability and address the technical complexities posed by distributed generation. This research provides a dynamic analysis of residential prosumer adoption and offers strategic recommendations for energy planners and policymakers. It emphasizes the importance of incentives, technological advancements, and effective grid management to foster energy sustainability and empower citizens in Thailand's energy transition. The results also offer a framework for similar regions globally to plan and manage the growth of residential prosumers, ensuring that energy transitions are effective, sustainable, and beneficial for all stakeholders involved.